Finance Seminar（2018-23）

Topic: Dividend Dynamics, Learning, and Expected Stock Index Returns

Speaker: Ravi Jagannathan, Northwestern Kellogg, NBER, SAIF

Time: Thursday, 18 October, 12:30-14:00

Location: Room 217, Guanghua Building 2

Abstract:

We present a latent variable model of dividends that predicts, out-of-sample, 39.5% to 41.3% of the variation in annual dividend growth rates between 1975 and 2016. Further, when learning about dividend dynamics is incorporated into a long-run risks model, the model predicts, out-of-sample, 25.3% to 27.1% of the variation in annual stock index returns over the same time horizon, with learning contributing approximately half of the predictability in returns. These _ndings support the view that investors' aversion to long-run risks and their learning about these risks are important in determining stock index prices and expected returns.

Introduction:

Dr. Ravi Jagannathan is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange/John F. Sandner Professor of Finance at Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management and Co-Director of the Financial Institutions and Markets Research Center at the Kellogg School (1997 - present). He has previously held positions as Piper Jaffray Professor of Finance (1993 - 1997) and Associate Professor of Finance (1989 - 1993) at the University of Minnesota's Carlson School of Management, Assistant Professor of finance at Northwestern University's Kellogg School (1983 - 1989), and as a Distinguished Visiting Professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (1994 - 1995), and has appointments as Special Terms professor at Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, Shanghai Jiao Tong University (2012+) and the Indian School of Business (2012-2014) and the Area Leader for Finance, Economics, and Public Policy at the Indian School of Business (2014 - 2018).

Ravi received a Ph.D. in Financial Economics (1983) and an M.S. in Financial Economics (1981) from Carnegie Mellon University, an M.B.A. from the Indian Institute of Management at Ahmedabad (1972), and a B.E. in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Madras (1970). His Ph.D dissertation received the Alexander Henderson award for excellence in economics.

Ravi has served on the editorial boards of leading academic journals, and is a former executive editor of the Review of Financial Studies. He has served as a member of the Board of Directors of the American Finance Association and the Western Finance Association and is a past President of the Western Finance Association, the Society of Financial Studies, the Financial Intermediation Research Society, and the Society for Financial Econometrics. He is a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a fellow of the Society for Financial Econometrics, and a member of the Board of Directors of the Financial Management Association.

Ravi's research interests include asset pricing, capital markets, portfolio performance appraisal, and financial institutions. His articles have appeared in leading academic journals, including the Journal of Political Economy, Journal of Financial Economics, Journal of Finance, and Review of Financial Studies and in several graduate level text books. He is recognized internationally for the Hansen-Jagannathan bound, Hansen-Jagannathan distance, TGARCH/GJR volatility model, and the use of portfolio weight constraints in estimating large covariance matrices with precision. He received the 2014 Graham & Dodd, Murray, Greenwald Prize for Value Investing.

//www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/directory/jagannathan_ravi.aspx

Your participation is warmly welcomed!