Finance Seminar（2015-26）

Topic: Hoard Behavior During Commodity Bubbles

Speaker: Harrison Hong, Princeton University and NBER

Time: Tuesday, 8 September, 10:00-11:30

Location: Room 217, Guanghua Building 2

Abstract: Hoarding, the accumulation of inventories in the midst of high prices, is often blamed for causing commodity market panics and bubbles but evidence is lacking. Using supermarket scanner data on US household purchases during the 2008 Rice Bubble, we document household hoard behavior when export bans led to a spike in prices worldwide in the first half of 2008. Households with previous purchases of rice nearly doubled their buying during the peak of prices and cut back purchases when prices fell. Counties with more household hoarding experienced lower rather higher future rice price growth at local stores, inconsistent with rational expectations. Many households bought rice for the first and last time during this episode.