Economics Seminar（2018-15）

Topic:Oil Shocks, External Adjustment, and Country Portfolio

Speaker:Sheng Liugang, the Chinese University of Hong Kong

Time:Tuesday,Oct.16, 13:30-15:00p.m

Place:Room 217, Guanghua Building 2

Abstract:

This study examines the intertemporal theory of external adjustment by using two types of oil income shocks with different timings: Worldwide giant oil and gas discovery news shocks and contemporaneous shocks of oil and gas net export revenue due to changes in international oil prices. Empirical estimates based on a large panel of countries for the period of 1960 to 2012 are consistent with the intertemporal model. Net foreign assets hike immediately upon oil revenue shocks, but decrease in the first five years after oil discoveries and then increase sharply after oil production starts. Moreover, the external adjustments upon oil shocks are largely driven by the current account channel, and valuation effects partially stabilize the current account adjustment for oil revenue shocks. Oil discoveries attract large amount of FDI inflows to share the risk of oil extraction, and oil revenue shocks significantly increase the net holdings in low-risk foreign debt assets. This result indicates that risk sharing plays an important role in country portfolio diversification.

Introduction:

Professor Sheng Liugang is an associate professor of the Department of Economics in the Chinese University of Hong Kong. He is also the director of the Trade and Development Programme of the Economic Research Centre of the Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies. Prof. Sheng’s research interests cover international trade, international macroeconomics, and economic development. His papers have been published in many reputable international and Chinese journals including Quarterly Journal of Economics, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Pacific Economic Review, Asian Economic Papers, China Economic Quarterly, and Law and Social Sciences. Prof. Sheng received his PhD in economics from University of California, Davis in 2012. He also obtained MA in economics from Virginia Tech in 2008. Before he went to US, he received the bachelor and master degree from Peking University in 2002 and 2005 respectively.

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